AtlasIntel provided the most precise estimates for the 2024 US Presidential Election, both at the national level and within key battleground states that decided the Electoral College.

AtlasIntel released today its first national poll on the 2024 presidential election in the U.S. The survey, collected through our signature Atlas RDR methodology between February 2nd and 7th, targeted likely voters in the U.S. and amassed a sample of 1,637 respondents, resulting in a margin of error of two percentage points.

All AtlasIntel polls released after the presidential primaries showed Massa ahead while all other pollsters heavily overestimated Milei’s performance. While most were also pointing to a runoff between Massa and Milei, with the exception of AltasIntel none of them had Massa leading outside of the margin of error.

Public and private AtlasIntel polls accurately captured the dynamics of voter mobilization and came closer to the final vote count than any competitor.

AtlasIntel’s overall estimates were the most accurate benchmark in the race, aside from also providing the best strategic guidance for our subscribers. 

AtlasIntel polls released to Argentine media groups ahead of the September 12th primaries in Argentina (PASO) came closest to the final outcome of the race at the national level and in the city of Buenos Aires.

With more than 95% of the votes counted in Georgia, both Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff are poised to win the Senate runoffs outside the recount margin of 0.5% of the vote.

AtlasIntel had the best performance across all pollsters of the 2020 US Presidential Election with an average error of 2.01p.p.

Based on the current results in key swing states and on our current projection of a final Biden advantage in the national popular vote of approx. 4.4 percentage points, AtlasIntel had the best performance across all pollsters of the 2020 US Presidential Election with an average error of 1.94 points.

With an average race RMSE of 4.2 points, AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of 2020 Democratic Primary races.

The AtlasIntel poll released ahead of the California Democratic Primary had Bernie Sanders at 34% and Joe Biden at 26%.

The AtlasIntel poll released one day ahead of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary was the single most accurate forecast of the race.