AtlasIntel provided the most precise estimates for the 2024 US Presidential Election, both at the national level and within key battleground states that decided the Electoral College. This achievement further solidifies AtlasIntel's reputation for precision in the US polling industry. AtlasIntel consistently indicated Donald Trump’s victory in the national popular vote, his structural advantage across swing states and the final outcome in terms of delegate advantage for the Electoral College. AtlasIntel was the only pollster to achieve such precision across the board.

 

Pollster Accuracy in the 2024 US Presidential Election: National Popular Vote

 

Time-series of Atlas National Polls in the 2024 Presidential Cycle

 

States Pollster Accuracy in the 2024 US Presidential Election: Swing States

 

Precision of Final Atlas Polls: National + State-Level

 

Electoral College Map: Final Atlas Polls vs. Outcome

 

Stellar AtlasIntel performance in the 2024 cycle highlights the superiority of Atlas RDR polling methodology

In a highly dynamic electoral cycle characterized by unexpected events and the failure of both statistical models, such as that created by Nate Silver, and fundamentals-based approaches, such as that of Allan Lichtman, AtlasIntel delivered a stable and precise assessment of Trump’s structural advantage at the national level and state level. In key states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, AtlasIntel was the single pollster to reveal a Trump advantage throughout the entire race. The final outcome of AtlasIntel's work in the 2024 presidential election cycle had 100% accuracy in terms of mapping out the outcome for the delegate count in the Electoral College.

AtlasIntel’s success in the 2024 election is attributed to its innovative methodological approach and in-depth focus on swing states, distinguishing the firm as the most accurate polling firm. Unlike traditional models relying on phone or in-person data collection methods, AtlasIntel utilizes its proprietary data collection and calibration system, Atlas Random Digital Recruitment (Atlas RDR). This web-based recruitment method integrates big data with statistical modeling, providing an online data collection process that accurately maps electoral trends while circumventing common biases in conventional polling, such as interviewer biases, thus offering a more authentic reflection of voter sentiment.

AtlasIntel’s digital approach stands out particularly due to its ability to handle complex non-response patterns and effectively manage demographic variables, ensuring representative samples of the broader population, including demographic groups with limited technology access. This approach allows for capturing critical nuances in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, where other firms failed to accurately reflect voter preferences, reaffirming the robustness and reliability of AtlasIntel’s methodology.