In spite of lower turnout, the final results of 1st round voting in the 2022 French presidential election broadly confirmed AtlasIntel estimates. In comparison to a consensus view based on poll averages, AtlasIntel was expecting a larger lead for Macron, a close race between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Lúc Mélenchon, and a collapse for Valérie Pécresse.


Each of these key insights were confirmed:

• AtlasIntel released the only poll to anticipate a statistical tie between Le Pen and Mélenchon; a slightly higher degree of cannibalization between Zemmour and Le Pen could have propelled Mélenchon into the runoff; the failure to seize on this possibility was the single most important deficiency of polling in the 2022 French presidential cycle so far.
• AtlasIntel released the only poll with a perfect estimate for Macron, whose 27,8% score came in higher than consensus. 
• AtlasIntel released the only poll that correctly anticipated the magnitude of the collapse in support for Pécresse, whose final vote count amounted to less than 5% of the suffrage.
• Overall, AtlasIntel had the third lowest average error; discounting the impact of last-minute strategic voting by Zemmour voters for Marine Le Pen, AtlasIntel’s overall estimates were the most accurate benchmark in the race, aside from also providing the best strategic guidance for our subscribers.