Biden administration poised to take advantage of window of opportunity for judicial nominations and advancing legislative agenda.

With more than 95% of the votes counted in Georgia, both Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff are poised to win the Senate runoffs outside the recount margin of 0.5% of the vote. Based on the profile of outstanding votes, we expect Warnock’s final margin to exceed 2% and Ossoff’s margin to exceed 1%. The results fall within the margin of error of AtlasIntel polling released prior to January 5th, in which both democrats held a slightly larger lead of approx. 4%.

The slightly stronger republican result relative to AtlasIntel estimates was primarily driven by better-than-expected turnout mobilization among white voters in Atlanta’s suburban areas, which managed to partially compensate for the advantage registered by Democrats among newly-registered voters.

Democratic Senate majority comes at a crucial time for the incoming Biden administration, as it seeks to appoint a replacement for Justice Stephen Breyer on the Supreme Court and make executive-branch nominations. Although a split 50-50 Senate may make it hard for the Biden administration to push on the more ambitious items of its agenda, at a minimum it ensures a viable foundation for passing through essential pieces of legislation during its early time in office. Nonetheless, a tight Senate majority may end up hurting democrats during the 2022 midterms if the economy stagnates and the incoming administration fails to deliver on voter expectations.