AtlasIntel released today its first national poll on the 2024 presidential election in the U.S. The survey, collected through our signature Atlas RDR methodology between February 2nd and 7th, targeted likely voters in the U.S. and amassed a sample of 1,637 respondents, resulting in a margin of error of two percentage points.

AtlasIntel’s main general election scenario shows Trump leading Biden 43.9% to 42.3%, constituting a statistical tie when considering the margin of error.

• The technical tie is more favorable for Trump than for Biden, even as one considers a potential improvement in Biden’s performance going forward. Current estimates are similar to the Atlas poll of February 2020. At the time, the estimates showed Biden and Trump in a statistical tie, with Biden at 45.8% and Trump at 45.4%. In November of that year, Biden ended up defeating Trump by 51,3% to 46,8% in the popular vote (the final AtlasIntel poll was the most accurate among all pollsters in the race). This suggests that Biden may improve going forward and the race may become more competitive. Nonetheless, significant events that adversely impacted the 2020 race for Trump (Covid-19 pandemic, George Floyd assassination and subsequent BLM protests, etc.) have been replaced by salient themes that are more favorable to him, such as the border crisis and concern regarding geopolitical tensions.
•  For Biden, a technical tie in the national vote would likely translate into a defeat in the swing states that actually define the election. The dynamics of the electoral college system traditionally favor Republican candidates. In the 2020 election, Biden led Trump by 4.4 points nationally, but his victory was guaranteed by razor-thin margins in Georgia (0.3 point), Arizona (0.4 point), Wisconsin (0.6 point), and Pennsylvania (1.2 point). In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2 points, but lost in the electoral college by a margin of nearly 80 delegates.
• Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. registers only 5% in the AtlasIntel poll released today. Nonetheless, he appears to be taking more votes from Democrats than from Republicans. This points to a potential repeat of the 1992 Ross Perot scenario. Kennedy’s presence in the race will be a significant obstacle for Biden to achieve the growth he needs to obtain an edge in the electoral college.

Biden is seen as more trustworthy than Trump on social and environmental matters, but not in the issues that are currently more salient in the U.S. political discourse - especially immigration.

• Considering voters’ generally negative view of his administration, their poor perception of Biden’s performance in specific issue areas comes as no surprise. Some areas that can reasonably be seen as bright spots for him are job growth, healthcare, inequality, and environmental protection - these are where he faces less rejection (keeping in mind that “less rejection” here still means a net negative of around 20 points), and issues on which he is seen as more trustworthy than Trump.
• Unfortunately for Biden, however, such issues have so far been much less dominant in the 2024 political discourse than inflation; the conflict in Ukraine, conflict in Gaza and Yemen; and immigration - subjects that are traditionally more closely associated with the Republicans. Accordingly, Trump is seen as more trustworthy than Biden in regard to the war in Ukraine (Trump +5), the national debt (+6), the conflict between Israel and Hamas (+10), and immigration (+22).
• Reinforcing the salience of immigration for this year’s election, building the wall on the border with Mexico, Trump’s signature proposal in 2016, appears as one the most popular policies in AtlasIntel’s poll, with a net favorability rating of 42. On the other hand, as a silver lining for Democrats, some of the main policies in their platform are also considerably popular - namely, Obamacare (with rescinding the program at a net favorability of -23), tax hikes on high-income earners (net favorability at 17), and safeguarding abortion rights (net favorability at 9).

Currently, the 2024 Presidential Election is a contest between two candidates with historically high rejection rates.

• Voters’ overall perception of Biden’s job performance is negative, with a net approval rating of -10. Furthermore, amid concerns over his age and health, 45.4% of all respondents believe he should drop out of the race. Among Democrats, however, 79% believe he should be the candidate.
• Much like in 2020, Democrats will try to capitalize on opposition to Trump and on the idea that he represents a threat to democracy. A majority - 52.4% - consider that he should be disqualified from the election due to his role in the January 6th, 2021 invasion of the Capitol. 86% of Republicans, however, are of the opposite opinion.
• With Biden as the incumbent and Trump out of power, however, this may not be as efficient in 2024. Today’s Atlas poll shows 48.5% of respondents believe judicial proceedings against Trump are motivated by political persecution, a sign that the public may not be as receptive to pushback against Trump, justified or not. Among independents, this number reaches 53.8%. This el-custom-highlight-texts the importance of independents, among whom Trump currently leads by 47.3% against 31.2% for Biden.

Considering Biden’s high rejection rates and increasing public concern regarding his health in the aftermath of the special counsel report released yesterday by the Department of Justice, the rumors regarding a potential dropout are poised to intensify.

• Should Michelle Obama enter the race, she would considerably strengthen Democrats’ chances to win the 2024 election. Our polling for this scenario shows Obama leading Trump by 2.5 points. The disposition of independent voters is much more favorable for Democrats - while Biden trails Trump by 16 points in this demographic, Obama and Trump break even.
• Most other potential candidates do not have Michelle Obama’s appeal: either the favorability (such as VP Kamala Harris) or the national name recognition (such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom) are significantly weaker. 
• Swing state mobilization of young and African American voters would make a significant difference for Democrats. These were key demographics for Joe Biden’s electoral victory in 2020, when he led Trump by 75 points among Black voters and 34 points among voters under 30. Now, however, this lead has shrunk to 25 points among Black voters and actually turned into a 14-point trail among voters under 30. Michelle Obama, on the other hand, appears with a 32-point lead against Trump among African Americans and a 7-point trail among those aged 18-29. As is expected from a hypothetical question (compared to the extremely likely Trump vs. Biden matchup), this scenario features high percentages of undecideds in this category, suggesting Obama would have ample room for further growth.
• Such a maneuver by Democrats remains unlikely. Biden dropping out now, with primaries already underway and campaign filing deadlines passed in most states, would result in a messy nominating process in the Democratic National Convention in late August. Even for a well-known candidate like Michelle Obama, setting up a national campaign in a few months would be a steep uphill climb. Furthermore, to top it all off, Obama has, since 2016, repeatedly claimed she is not interested in politics, especially not a presidential bid. The importance of defeating Trump could overcome this resistance, but, if that were the case, we would already be seeing stronger signals of the Democrats propping her up.

Download the full Atlas Poll results